As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, former President Donald Trump is seeing a stronger-than-expected performance in critical swing states, signaling a significant shift from his 2020 election results. CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed out that recent polling numbers indicate Trump is not only holding his ground but is, in fact, performing better than he did four years ago in several key battleground states. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday, Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in Arizona, while also maintaining a 4-point lead in Georgia and a 3-point advantage in North Carolina.
Enten emphasized that these numbers are “significantly better” than Trump’s previous polling in these states, calling it “pretty good news” for the former president and Republican nominee. In contrast, President Joe Biden had carried two of these three states—Arizona and Georgia—in 2020. Now, Trump’s lead in these battlegrounds suggests a potential path to victory that wasn’t as apparent in previous cycles.
The polling also reveals a deeper divide between two major regions: the Sun Belt states, where Trump is gaining ground, and the Great Lakes states, where Harris holds a slight edge. Enten explained that Trump’s improved performance in the Sun Belt could be attributed to his increasingly diverse coalition of supporters. In particular, Trump has seen a significant rise in support among non-white voters, jumping from 16% in 2020 to 20% in 2024. This increase is especially notable in the diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, where the population is more heavily Hispanic and African American compared to other regions.
“If you know anything about those Sun Belt battleground states, it’s that they are more diverse than those Great Lake battleground states,” Enten explained. “In the Southwest, they’re more Hispanic than they are nationwide, in the South, Southeast, North Carolina and Georgia, they are more African American than they are nationwide. And I think the real question here is, what does this mean for the electoral map because that’s what we’re all interested in and look folks, it’s just as tight as it can possibly be.”
This growing diversity in Trump’s support base could be a critical factor in reshaping the electoral map for 2024. The Sun Belt states, including Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, have seen significant demographic shifts in recent years, with rising populations of Hispanic and Black voters. If Trump continues to gain ground among these communities, it could provide him with the leverage he needs to secure the necessary electoral votes.
While Trump is performing well in the Sun Belt, Harris maintains a narrow 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These Great Lakes states, which were pivotal in deciding the 2020 election, remain highly competitive and could swing either way as Election Day approaches. Enten cautioned that while polling in these states gives Harris a slight advantage, Trump has a history of outperforming polls in swing states. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump exceeded expectations in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, suggesting he could do so again in 2024.
Enten presented a hypothetical electoral map based on current polling data, which showed Harris winning 276 to 262 electoral votes if the polls in the Great Lakes states are accurate. However, given Trump’s track record of surpassing poll predictions, Enten suggested that Trump could ultimately perform better in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan than the polls currently reflect. This potential for surprise outcomes makes the 2024 election one of the most unpredictable in recent history.
Beyond the numbers, the broader question is how Trump’s diverse coalition and growing appeal in key battleground states will influence the dynamics of the race. With both candidates drawing strong support in different regions, the election could hinge on voter turnout and final campaigning efforts in the weeks leading up to November. Trump’s ability to appeal to a broader range of voters, particularly in racially diverse areas, will likely play a pivotal role in his attempt to reclaim the White House.
In sum, the battle for the presidency is shaping up to be a highly competitive and closely watched contest. With Trump gaining ground in the Sun Belt and Harris holding steady in the Great Lakes, the final outcome remains uncertain. One thing is clear: both candidates will need to fight for every vote as the electoral map tightens and the nation heads toward another historic election.
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