Thrilling News: Will the King make It In? Examining Félix’s Hall of Fame case

December 21, 2024 Akor Enokela Baseball 0

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter.

SEATTLE — How might the narrative of Felix Hernandez career be different had he pitched in the postseason, won at least one additional Cy Young Award (if not more), finished his career on a higher note or pitched beyond his age-33 season?

All of these “what-ifs” make Hernández among the most fascinating Hall of Fame cases among this year’s candidates for Cooperstown, and potentially for the next decade if he remains on the ballot.

Hernández is making his debut on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballot for the Hall, which was unveiled last month, He was joined among newcomers by former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, who is expected to be elected next month — and could become the first position player in history to do so unanimously.

Hernández, however, doesn’t have nearly the shoe-in case of Suzuki — but his credentialsare certainly worth a deeper dive for consideration.

As a refresher, eligible players must play at least 10 years and be five years removed from their final season. Each year, a committee from the BBWAA selects a group within this criteria to be added to the ballot, alongside holdovers from the previous year who earned the necessary 5% support to stay on but not the 75% required for election.

BBWAA members are eligible to vote after covering baseball for 10 consecutive seasons. Per the Hall of Fame, potential Hall of Fame voters must be actively covering the game, with a 10-year grace period for those no longer active. A BBWAA voter can cast a maximum of 10 players on their ballot each year.

There were exactly 400 ballots sent out for 2025, meaning that Hernández must appear on at least 20 to remain, otherwise his path to the Hall would become murkier. If he drops off the ballot, the clearest path to election is via the Contemporary Era Players Committee, which meets every three years to discuss the candidacy for those who played after 1980 and are no longer eligible on the BBWAA ballot.

And even that would be far from a guarantee, as “players who receive less than 5% from the writers rarely wind up on committee ballots,” writes FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe, widely considered a leading HOF expert and the creator of JAWS(Jaffe wins above replacement score), an evaluation system for a player’s worthiness by comparing him to other HOFers at his position.

These are simply the mathematics in play for Hernández, whose 10-year peak put him in the conversation as among his generation’s greatest pitchers, but whose total body of work seemingly presents an uphill climb to Cooperstown.

Hernández was the 2010 American League Cy Young Award winner, a six-time All-Star, the AL’s starting pitcher for the 2014 All-Star Game and a two-time winner of the AL ERA title. He also finished runner-up for the Cy twice, in 2009 and 2014, as part of six top 10 finishes for pitching’s most prestigious honor. And of course, the single act he might be remembered for most was twirling the 23rd perfect game in history, on Aug. 15, 2012, a feat that wouldn’t be matched for nearly another 11 years.

Examining his decade of dominance, specifically from 2006-15, Hernández led MLB in wins above replacement per FanGraphs (50.1), strikeouts (2,065), innings (2,178) and quality starts (218), while ranking fifth in ERA (3.13). In that stretch, he had 16 consecutive starts of seven innings and two runs or fewer allowed (May 18 through Aug. 11, 2014), the most in MLB history, according to data shared by the Mariners.

But the end was far less flattering.

Hernández dealt with a battery of injuries over his final five seasons, perhaps a byproduct of such a high innings volume early in his career — but also, well-chronicled physical challenges of adjusting to his aging body and pitching repertoire.

Over his final three seasons, he was the least valuable pitcher in baseball (by fWAR, min. 300 innings), going 15-27 with a 5.42 ERA (77 ERA+, where league average is 100). After his seven-year, $175 million contract expired — on the heels of an emotional final start in 2019 — he never threw another pitch in MLB.

It’s no secret that he was stubborn in his approach to making longer-term physical adjustments and clashed with the Mariners’ front office and coaching staff about it, too, leading to an unheralded ending with the organization after 15 seasons, but one that has since been repaired, culminating with Hernández being inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame in 2023.

The question is whether he’ll get the even more elusive Hall call — and more so, if he’ll remain on the BBWAA ballot beyond this year to do so.

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